May 19, 2009 11:08 AM
by Martha MacCallum
So while you are thinking about the previous segment -- rising car prices -- coming your way...Here's Martha's Memo -- with the rest of what to keep in mind today if you're trying to figure out where this wacky economy is going...
OOPS -- not a good number to start -- the number of new homes they are breaking ground on -- sunk 12.8% in the month. Economists -- you know they are not always right about these things -- thought it would go up 2%. Bad news for the home building companies.
Still -- here's the thing to keep in mind. We need home inventories to go down. So that could be helpful to all those existing homes out there on the market.
Good news -- Home Depot - came in with better than expected profits! The bad news -- it was because of cost cutting -- which all companies are doing these days -- and not becuase more people are buying new sinks and toilets!
And last but not least -- Big news! Fox Business is reporting that the government may finally agree to take money back from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan -- in the first round of TARP returns. And that is good news. The markets like that of course.
Posted Under: Martha's Memo
May 7, 2009 12:28 PM
by Martha MacCallum
I try to draw our attention to any glimmer's of hope out there in the economy -- although these days I want to urge a bit of caution in equal measure. We don't want to jump the gun on what looks to be a rocky bottom here..
Still -- get this -- the number of new folks who had to show up to collect unemployment for the first time -- fell last week. In fact, the number of newly jobless getting on the line has now fallen for four out of the last five weeks!
Now -- before you get too excited keep in mind that the overall number of those receiving unemployment checks is still hitting new highs and is over 6.3 million.
So this means while the bleeding may be stopping -- the healing -- meaning new jobs for those out of work -- is not happening.
So this is the kind of thing that economists point to when they talk about "bottoming out" -- perhaps the bad news is slowing down.
Keep in mind - that commercial real estate is just now hitting the skids and the credit card companies are the new "subprime mortgage" -- so hang in there -- we'll continue to take note of the glimmer's of hope and try to keep our eyes on the big picture.
Posted Under: Martha's Glimmer of Hope
April 13, 2009 11:35 AM
by Martha MacCallum
On Easter Sunday, the world witnessed a perfect act by snipers in the U.S. Navy. They took out three pirates who had kidnapped and held hostage an innocent man. The pirates had held an AK-47 at his back and threatened to kill him. In three shots, the Navy snipers eliminated that threat and saved Captain Richard Phillips.In this moment, perhaps more than any yet, President Obama showed real presidential courage. He took that chance to save the life of Captain Phillips, by authorizing the use of force by the Navy. These are the decisions that a Commander-in-Chief must make.
Sadly, we also saw this weekend, what can happen when things go wrong. In the French military attempt to free a family of three held by pirates, tragically the father of the family, was killed. His wife and child, with whom he had set sail, headed for a new life and adventure in Africa, were freed.
Clearly, in both situations, the crew and the family - were terrorized by these gun-toting hoodlums. The President acted to save this American hero, and in that moment, we all saw how he acts under pressure. No doubt Captain Phillips and his family are grateful to him and all those in the chain of command, who secured his release.
Posted Under: Martha's Memo
April 3, 2009 10:54 AM
by Martha MacCallum
No one should be surprised that Merkel and Sarkozy are united against more government spending in Europe.Although both represent socialist nations, their own elections signaled a real, yet relative turn to the right.
Sarkozy was the UMP - right party candidate. He defeated Socialist candidate Segolene Royal on a platform to shape up France's economy and take a harder line on domestic unrest. Increased government spending was never his MO.
Also, politically center-right, Angela Merkel defeated the former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. She ran on a "reformist" platform and as a supporter of the Iraq war. She accused Schroeder of being anti-American.
So remember that Europeans, during the Bush administration were not unified in an Anti-American stance. During that period both France and Germany elected candidates who were leaning away from socialism.
So it comes as no surprise that while supportive and friendly to President Obama on many fronts - they were not willing to support an expansion of spending as stimulus.
This raises the question -- is the President improving our standing overseas -- or was it really in need of repair?
Posted Under: Martha's Memo
April 1, 2009 12:21 PM
by Martha MacCallum
This is a very important moment for our country.
President Obama swept into office promising to raise us up with hope. Assuring us that America's place in the world would be "restored." Now is his chance. He has said that it is good to be President in "consequential" times. Now is the time to take it up a notch and prove it.
Will the US currency continue to be the world's standard? Or will it be replaced by a "Global Standard currency" as President Medvedev and President Hu Jingtao have suggested? Will the US financial markets, a beacon of capitalism and the standard that burgeoning young financial cites like Mumbai, seek to emulate, stay on top? Can they do that without the real chance of success or of failure (read: bankruptcy)?
Can this President, who was so great at inspiring voters during the election - now inspire the world with his leadership qualities?
In the past, he has been agile and able to rise to the challenge. A quick learner and willing to do what it took to win. Now he must take it to a whole new level. The country and the world want a steady hand, tough choices and a leader. We all have our "Hope" in him. Show us change we can believe in - for real.
Posted Under: Martha's Memo
March 26, 2009 10:57 AM
by Martha MacCallum
The night that Hillary Clinton conceded the nomination of her party to Barack Obama, we watched what we thought was the end of an amazing political journey. A journey fraught with the excruciating dramas and giddy highs of everything Clintonian.
But Hillary has a motto. When the going gets tough -- just KEEP GOING. It has been working throughout her life like the energizer bunny on steroids.
There she is - astonishingly shut out from her White House dream -- then - having wrested a possible VP spot from the jaws of defeat - only to see that one dashed as well - but who's smiling now?
First of all, who wants to be in the White House now anyway!
While the President and his VP face Americans who are so disgruntled that some of them even want to string people who got bonuses up with piano wire - she's hobnobbing with foreign leaders and looking Presidential.
This is not to say that she doesn't have a tough job.
The world is a pretty tricky place these days. Our allies are in the economic dust as well. Our enemies are taking advantage of our distress to get their weapons up to speed. And who would've thought that our neighbor to the South - our ol' compadre Mexico - could pose perhaps the most immediate threat to our borders.
It's a good time to be a fairly hawkish Democrat who is not inclined to sit down with our enemies without some of those "pre-conditions" in your back pocket.
So perhaps HRC is pretty pleased that things worked out the way they did. Her passport is getting dogeared - but her resume? Not too shabby.
Posted Under: Martha's Memo
March 25, 2009 12:47 PM
by Martha MacCallum
I'll ask Austan Goolsbee of the President's
econ team what he thinks about the fact that
the British Central Bank chief says NO MORE
Stimulus!
Posted Under: America's Talking
March 20, 2009 3:33 PM
by Martha MacCallum
You may be hearing that in a land where we talk in "trillions" and at the very least, "billions" - the 165 million that was given to AIG execs really doesn't matter.
I disagree.
Here's the reason. It matters because of what it says about how all of this is really working in Washington.
Picture AIG as a man hanging onto the edge of precipice with the U.S. Treasury leaning down to grab his hands. Now if the man is not 100% sure that the Treasury will give him a hand -- he's gonna start talking, right?
"I'll do anything - he'll say -- just give me a lift and I'll make sure you'll never be sorry you did." But instead, the endangered Man (AIG) says "Yeah, I'll let you help me up, but I'm not going along with that thing about not paying the bonuses."
Strange, right?
So why would that be? Why would the man hanging on the edge of the cliff have LEVERAGE ? One reason: he KNOWS the man won't let him fall. That's right. He is "TOO BIG TO FAIL!" So, now he can negotiate.
My guys are still going to go on their trip to Dana Point for golf and massages, they are still going to get their bonus, and on and on.
Not only that - when the Treasury calls and says -- look we need you to reconsider -- this bonus thing is going to look really bad - still the 170 billion dollar man says -- TO THE U.S TREASURY! - sorry, no can do ol' buddy ol' pal.
So now we're thinking that the Man (the treasury) who reaches down really doesnt have the backbone to tell falling man much of anything. That's where we are -- we're in. And AIG knows it.
And so does everybody else.
So what now? Walk away from the ledge. As any good negotiator knows, you have to be willing to walk away.
Posted Under: America's Talking
March 18, 2009 12:21 PM
by Martha MacCallum
Why should anyone be surprised if Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner went along with a plan to allow "retention" bonuses to keep the people who created the mess at AIG -- because they are "the only ones" who know how to solve it.
Remember when we were told that because Geithner had been part of the Paulson team that orchestrated the early stages of the bank bailout - he was indespensible?
We were told that because he understood the situation so well, congress must confirm him immediately. We were told that the dire situation required that they overlook the fact that he forgot to pay his taxes. (He subsequently paid them around the time he was offered the job at treasury.) Why? Because he was the only one who could solve it.
Sound familiar?
Posted Under: Martha's Memo
March 17, 2009 10:28 AM
by Martha MacCallum
Okay, so Sen. Grassley's call for AIG execs to quite literally fall on their swords is in bad taste.
But, it does raise a question I've been asking for some time.
A bit of the Japanese model of taking the heat would certainly do some good here at home. Why have we not seen any of these executives come forward, take blame, and yes even thank the American people for saving their collective behinds in many cases.
Likely, the lawyers are keeping them quiet. The outrage against Wall Street so great - that some may be concerned for their safety or the safety of their families. But I think a bit of good old fashioned blame taking would go a long way. Let me write the script a bit -
"We overreached, we got greedy, we knew it couldn't last, we risked your money and blew it and for that we are sorry. Still, we ask that you trust us again. Invest in America again, we hope that you will. We will work hard to earn your again. This time we will not fail."
That would go a long way toward healing the rift between the people and the Street. On that point, Grassley is right.
Posted Under: America's Talking, Martha's Glimmer of Hope